Sunday, February 5, 2012

Super Bowl Over/Under: Why There Will Be More Offense Than People Think

Vegas has set the over/under for Super Bowl 46 at 54 points, which seems perfectly reasonable at first glance.

However, if you have any knowledge of how the New England Patriots and New York Giants have looked this season, it seems extremely low.

The Patriots fielded the third highest-scoring offense in the league this year, averaging 32 points per game. The Giants were also in the top-10 in scoring this year, with an average of just under 25 points per game.

Though New England only allowed 21 points per game and the Giants 25, it doesn't mean that's how today's game is going to play out.

The Patriots ranked 31st in pass defense in the regular season and Giants quarterback Eli Manning has averaged over 300 yards per game.

With a number of receiving weapons at his disposal and a Patriots secondary prone to making mistakes against offenses, whether weak or strong, Manning is poised to lead his team to a high-scoring day.

The same can be said for Patriots quarterback Tom Brady and his teammates on offense. Though the Giants feature a far stronger defense than the Patriots, one that has only improved during the playoffs, it's impossible to think that Brady won't have at least a somewhat successful day.

Furthermore, it's not as though the Giants secondary has been all that stout this year, giving up 255 passing yards per game.

Both the Giants and Patriots defenses will be playing to the best of their abilities, to be sure, and quite often Super Bowls aren't the offensive explosions that we all expect.

However, considering the strength of the two teams' respective offenses and the seeming ease with which they've managed to score points all season long, the over seems to be the smart play.

There's far more reason to believe that this game will be a shootout than a defensive standoff. In my estimation, there will be at least 64 total points scored today—a good 10 points more than Vegas' prediction.

Atlanta Thrashers Central Conference Rochester Rhinos Westchester Flames

No comments:

Post a Comment