Tuesday, November 8, 2011

College Football Preview: Michigan Small Favorites at Illinois This Week

There is a dogfight in the Big Ten Legends Division, of which Michigan is a member. The Wolverines need a win to keep pace with in-state rival Michigan State for the division title and a spot in the inaugural conference championship game.

Illinois shook up the Leaders Division early on, but has fallen out of contention for the division title and is now just searching for a win to improve its bowl standing.

Michigan has won 67 of the 92 all-time meetings with Illinois, including 40 of the last 48. Michigan won a three-overtime thriller last year in Ann Arbor, 67-65. Illinois won the last game in Champaign, 38-13, in 2009.

As Illinois hosts Michigan this week, the latest college football odds show the Wolverines favored by a point, while the over/under has been posted at 49 points.

 

Michigan

After bursting out to a 6-0 start under first-year coach Brady Hoke, the Wolverines have dropped two of three after a 24-16 loss at Iowa last week.

Both losses have come on the road, as Michigan has played six of nine games at home (including their first five).

On the road, Michigan has allowed 24 or more points in all three games.  By comparison, in six home games it has allowed 14 or fewer five times (the only exception is 31 against Notre Dame).

The Wolverines rank seventh nationally in scoring defense (16 ppg), while allowing 329 yards per game (192 passing, 137 rushing).

The unit has recorded 17 sacks and forced 20 turnovers, with three being converted to touchdowns (Brandon Herron and Courtney Avery have recovered fumbles for scores, while Herron also has an interception return).

Kenny Demens leads the defense with 66 total tackles, adding a sack and a forced fumble. Craig Roh has four sacks while Thomas Gordon leads the unit with three fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles.

The Michigan offense ranks 35th nationally in scoring at 33 points per game, while amassing 428 yards per contest (232 rushing, 196 passing).

Denard Robinson is the engine for this offense, as he completes 53 percent of his passes for 1,617 yards and 13 touchdowns with 12 interceptions.  He also leads the team in rushing with 880 yards and 10 TDs (6.0 yards per carry).

This Wolverine offensive line has allowed 12 sacks this season.

When Robinson throws, Junior Hemingway and Jeremy Gallon have combined for 49 catches for 911 yards and three TDs.

Toussaint Fitzgerald is the second-leading rusher on the team and has 561 yards (5.7 ypc) and six scores on the season.

 

Illinois

Illinois put the conference on notice when it started 6-0, but the offense has deserted the Illini as they have dropped three straight, the most recent being a 10-7 setback at Penn State two weeks ago.

In the last three games, Illinois has scored just 28 points after averaging nearly 35 per game in the 6-0 start.

Illinois is 5-1 at home this year, the lone loss being 17-7 to Ohio State in their last home contest.

Five of their games have been decided by seven points or fewer, with four of those decided by a single field goal (the Illini are 3-1 in those games).

Like Michigan, Illinois is well respected defensively, as it ranks 13th in the country in points allowed (17 ppg), while surrendering just 380 yards per game (177 passing, 103 rushing).

This unit has recorded 31 sacks and forced 16 turnovers, with two being converted into TDs (Trulon Henry returned an interception, while Tavon Wilson took back a fumble recovery).

Jonathan Brown leads the defense with 69 total tackles, adding 4.5 sacks, an interception, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. Whitney Mercilus is one of the national leaders in sacks with 11.5, and also has six forced fumbles and a recovery.  Henry and Terry Hawthorne have two picks each, while Ian Thomas has two fumble recoveries.

The Illinois offense ranks 68th in points scored (26 ppg), but near the Top 25 nationally in rushing at 198 yards per game.

Quarterback Nathan Scheelhaase and running back Jason Ford are a one-two punch in the backfield, combining for 993 yards and 11 touchdowns (but less than 4.0 ypc).

Scheelhaase has completed 64 percent of his passes for 1,687 yards and 12 TDs with five interceptions. His offensive line has allowed 25 sacks.

When Scheelhaase throws, his favorite target is A.J. Jenkins, who has 68 catches (no one else has more than 22) for 1,030 yards and seven TDs.

Kicker Derek Dimke has made 34 of 35 scoring kicks this season (7-8 FG, 27-27 PAT), with the one miss coming in the last game vs. Penn State.

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